Challenge 1: Global Climate Change
In the future, climate change issues will continue to affect the world's fishing and aquaculture industries for a long time, and will also affect related industries radiatively. According to the FAO report on the impact of climate change on fishing and aquaculture, there are currently 55 national industries that have pledged Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to be indirectly affected by climate change, involving food safety in 8 countries, food safety in 32 countries. Self-resilience, gender equality in 1 country, public participation in 17 countries, social security in 5 countries, rural employment in 7 countries, and social services in 2 countries.
Challenge 2: The spread of the new crown epidemic (COVID-19)
The global outbreak of the new crown epidemic in 2020 has caused a sharp decrease in the number of human marine activities, which may provide an opportunity for the ocean to recuperate, but it is undoubtedly a big blow to the global trade of aquatic products, especially for the export of aquatic products. It has been a "cold winter" for the economy, or for countries importing to meet domestic demand.
Forecast of global fishery production from 2018 to 2030
Based on a fisheries forecast model developed by the FAO in 2010, combined with existing data, the FAO forecasts global fishery production to 2030 (see chart below). However, the forecast results of this model are not forecasts, but reasonable expectations based on assumptions: global fisheries production, consumption and trade will be severely disrupted by the new crown epidemic in the first half of 2020, but will be severely disrupted by the end of 2020 Or resume in early 2021 (of course, we all know that this largely depends on whether Comrade Chuan Jianguo can be a little more reliable).
As can be seen from the figure, in general, the total output of fish in the world will continue to rise in the future, and it is expected to increase from 179 million tons in 2018 to 204 million tons in 2030, a year-on-year increase of 15%. Among them, aquaculture production contributed most of the increase, and it is expected to reach 109 million tons in 2030, an increase of 32% from 2018, an increase of 26 million tons, while fishing production basically maintains the original level.
The share of farmed species in global fisheries production (both food and non-food uses) is projected to increase from 46% in 2018 to 53% in 2030, exceeding the share of capture production. Of this, 59 percent of fish for human consumption will come from aquaculture, up from 52 percent in 2018.
However, through time-series analysis, FAO forecasts that the average annual growth rate of aquaculture will slow from 4.6% in 2007-2018 to 2.3% in 2019-2030. The slowdown in the average annual growth rate may be attributed to: the promulgation of more stringent and extensive environmental protection regulations, the reduction of space for water resources and production, and the outbreak of aquatic animal diseases caused by intensive production.
Looking at global aquaculture production, Asia will account for 89% of global aquaculture production by 2030, and China will remain the world’s leading producer, but its share of total production will drop from 58% in 2018 to 20% in 2030. 56%. Africa and Latin America are expected to be the fastest growing continents for aquaculture, with growth rates of 48% and 33%, respectively. However, total aquaculture production in Africa is still limited and is expected to reach 3.24 million tonnes in 2030, equivalent to 3% of China's.
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